How big is the automotive aluminum alloy die-casting market?
With the continued development of automobile lightweighting, aluminum alloys are widely used in automobiles, including aluminum plates for body panels, Aluminum Die Castings such as powertrains, chassis, and body structural parts, as well as power battery boxes. From the perspective of the mass distribution of the entire vehicle, the four major components (systems) of the body, power and transmission system, chassis, and interior account for more than 90%, which is also an important breakthrough direction in lightweighting. The amount of aluminum used in engines, transmission and transmission systems, wheels and body panels are 47.2Kg, 38.6kg, 32.7Kg and 26.8Kg respectively, accounting for a relatively large proportion of 22.7%, 18.5%, 15.7%, and 12.9Kg respectively. In addition, the amount of aluminum used in heat exchangers, suspensions, subframes, etc. is also relatively high.
From a technological perspective, automotive aluminum alloys are mainly aluminum die castings and aluminum plates. Aluminum alloys for automobiles can be divided into cast aluminum alloys and deformed aluminum alloys according to the process. The latter can be divided into three categories: extruded parts (extrusion process), aluminum plates (rolling process) and forged parts (forging process). Looking at the two mainstream markets of Europe and North America, Aluminum Castings are widely used, ranging from powertrain, chassis to body, etc., accounting for about 65% of automotive aluminum alloys; followed by aluminum plates, mostly used for body coverings, accounting for about 20%; extrusions account for about 10%, and forging castings are used less.
Aluminum alloy die castings are mainly used in three fields: power system, chassis system and body. Among them, the penetration rate of power system aluminum alloy is higher than 90%; the penetration rate of chassis and body structural parts is low, and it is expected to gradually increase under the background of lightweight and integrated die-casting. Aluminum die-casting parts, especially chassis and body structural parts, have great potential.
Technical barriers are high. Die-casting is a precision casting method that uses high pressure to force molten metal into a die-casting mold and cools it under pressure to form. The production process integrates various technical capabilities such as materials, molds, and processes. It has high technical barriers and requires continuous R&D investment.
The aluminum alloy penetration rate of chassis and body structural parts is low, and there is large room for improvement. (1) According to statistics from The Aluminum Association in 2012, among chassis parts in the North American automotive market, the penetration rate of aluminum alloy control arms is about 40%, and the penetration rate of steering knuckles is between 20% and 30%. According to data from the China Industry Information Network, the penetration rates of aluminum alloys in domestic control arms, subframes, and steering knuckles were 15%, 8%, and 40% in 2020, and are expected to be 30%, 25%, and 80% respectively by 2025, with large room for improvement. (2) Data from the International Aluminum Association shows that the current aluminum alloy penetration rate of body structural parts of fuel vehicles is 3%, and that of pure electric vehicles is 8%. The overall aluminum alloy penetration rate is low. Considering that the current trend of body-in-white is from steel structure to steel-aluminum hybrid structure, the penetration rate of aluminum alloy is expected to increase significantly.
The domestic automotive aluminum alloy die-casting industry has extremely low concentration. The die-casting industry is a fully competitive industry. Die-casting companies in developed countries are characterized by a small number, large individual scale, and high degree of specialization. They have strong advantages in capital, technology, customer resources, etc. Representative companies include Japan's RYOBI and Switzerland's DGS. China's die-casting industry is relatively low-concentration. Taking automotive aluminum alloy die-casting as an example, the larger companies include Guangdong Hongtu, Wencan Co., Ltd., and Aikedi. Their revenue in 2020 was 3.52 billion yuan (die casting business), 2.60 billion yuan, and 2.59 billion yuan respectively, with market shares of only 2.6%, 1.9%, and 1.9% respectively. The application of aluminum alloy die-casting parts in automobiles has gradually shown a trend of large-scale and integration. New energy manufacturers have used larger-tonnage die-casting machines to integrate the production of automobile parts and reduce manufacturing processes to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement. As investment in equipment and R&D increases, industry concentration is expected to increase significantly.
The domestic automotive aluminum alloy die-casting industry has extremely low concentration. The die-casting industry is a fully competitive industry. Die-casting companies in developed countries are characterized by a small number, large individual scale, and high degree of specialization. They have strong advantages in capital, technology, customer resources, etc. China's die-casting industry is relatively low-concentration. Taking aluminum alloy die-casting parts for automobiles as an example, the application of aluminum alloy die-casting parts in automobiles has gradually shown a trend of large-scale and integration. New energy manufacturers have used larger-tonnage die-casting machines to integrate the production of automobile parts and reduce manufacturing processes to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement. As investment in equipment and R&D increases, industry concentration is expected to increase significantly.
By 2035, new cars sold will be mainly electric vehicles, with half of them being pure electric and half hybrid. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also clearly stated the goal of increasing the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to 100,000 vehicles by 2025 and 1 million vehicles by 2035. my country's new energy vehicle production may reach 7.48 million units in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 40.5% from 20 to 25. From 2020 to 2025, the compound annual growth rate of my country's new energy vehicle production capacity will reach 40.5%, and the output of new energy vehicles in 2025 will be 7.48 million units. Including passenger cars (fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles) and commercial vehicles, and referring to the International Aluminum Association's estimated aluminum consumption for automobiles and bicycles in my country, the scale of my country's automotive aluminum alloy demand is calculated. On this basis, based on the proportion of die-casting parts for passenger cars (fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles) and commercial vehicles, it is estimated that the demand for die-casting parts for passenger cars and commercial vehicles in 2025 will be 2.086 million tons and 626,000 tons respectively, totaling 3.839 million tons, with a compound growth rate of 10.2% from 2021 to 2025.